According to the latest polling data, the odds of Kamala Harris as the United States president are rising. A Polymarket poll with over $556 million in assets places Kamala and Donald Trump at an equal 49%.
Kamal Harris could beat Trump
This poll is actually positive for Kamala since she has closed a gap that Trump had when he was vying against Joe Biden. Also, the other 1% is going to Michelle Obama, who said she will not vote for the presidency. Most of Michele’s votes will go to Kamala.
Polymarket is not the only poll predicting a Kamala win. Kalshi, the Sequoia-backed prediction data shows that she has a wide margin. Another poll by Ipsos showed that Kamala has a 5-point lead ahead of Trump.
Crypto traders are following the US election closely because the Trump campaign has focused on the industry. He was recently the second presidential candidate after Robert Kennedy Jnr to speak at a major Bitcoin conference.
Trump has also said he would support the US government building a Bitcoin reserve, especially using the current coins in its custody. The government holds over 213,000 coins, most of which it received from the Silk Road.
Furthermore, Donald Trump has also vowed to pardon Ross Ulbricht, Silk Road’s founder, and be supportive of Bitcoin miners.
Bitcoin price thrives under any president
Still, it is too early to predict whether Harris or Trump will win the election in November. What is clear, using historical data, is that Bitcoin will do just fine regardless of who wins.
Bitcoin has historically done well under all presidents. It gained popularity under Barrack Obama, soared to almost $20,000 under Trump, and hit over $73,000 under Biden.
Bitcoin has also thrived under Gary Gensler, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who is loathed by the crypto industry for his aggressive policies. While he is disliked, Gensler has done a good job for the industry by approving spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
The same situation happens in the stock market, where they do well regardless of who is in the White House. Top indices like the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 have always hit record highs in all presidential terms.
Some of the assets investors expect to do well in a certain presidential term backfire. For example, solar stocks were expected to thrive during Biden’s tenure. Instead, some, like Sunnova, have imploded. Prison contractors’ stocks did the opposite and soared during his term.
