The biggest event of this year will be the November election which will see Donald Trump and Joe Biden compete to be the next president. It will also be a crucial election since voters will determine the makeup of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Trump and Biden polls
Recent polls shows that Trump has a real chance of winning the election. Data compiled by FiftyThirtyEight shows that Trump is leading the national polls with a 41.5% edge against Biden’s 40.5%.
At the same time, Biden has become the least popular president in the US with an approval rate of 38.1%. Most voters are concerned about the economy as inflation has remained stubbornly high in Biden’s term. There are also concerns about the country’s immigration policies.
To be clear: polls can be wrong as we saw during the midterm elections. Also, a lot can happen between now and November, especially since Trump is going through several trials. A judge in New York has even threatened his jail time in the ongoing hush money case.
Impact on crypto and the markets
Therefore, analysts and investors are now positioning their portfolio to prepare for the next presidential election.
A closer look at data shows that the market does well regardless of who is in the White House. For example, Bitcoin price jumped from around $230 when Trump was inaugurated in 2017 to over $20,000 when he left office. It then surged to a record high of $73,733 in Biden’s presidency.
The same is true for other cryptocurrencies like Chainlink, Cardano, Zilliqa, and Tron. Chainlink (LINK) surged from $0.13 in 2017 to over $20 by the time Trump’s presidency ended.
Zilliqa (ZIL) opened at around $0.078 in November and then soared to over $0.24 by the time Trump office.
At the same time, all these tokens have jumped sharply in Biden’s presidency as the total market cap soared to over $3 trillion.
The stock market does the same too. While stocks tend to have some deep drawdowns such as during the dot com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), historical data shows that US equities does well over time. Key indices like the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones hit their record highs in Trump’s and Biden’s administration.
Still, the president can have an impact on cryptocurrencies. For example, analysts will be focusing on regulations, especially on who will be the next head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The theory is that Trump’s appointee will embrace a better approach than Gary Gensler, who has focused on enforcement. Just this week, he sent a Wells Notice to Robinhood for offering unregistered securities.
Therefore, the outlook for Bitcoin, Chainlink, Tron, and Zilliqa will be positive regardless of who wins the next election. Besides, there will be a Bitcoin halving event in 2018 and Bitcoin tends to rise between the cycles. There are also concerns about inflation and the soaring US public debt.
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