Tron price has moved sideways in the past few weeks as the crypto bull run faded. The TRX token stood at $0.12 on Monday morning, higher than last month’s low of $0.1102. It has retreated by over 16% from its highest point this year.
Why TRX has retreated
Justin Sun’s Tron has pulled back since March, joining other popular cryptocurrencies that have retreated like Solana, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Avalanche.
This decline has also coincided with the sharp reversal of American equities as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices have retreated in the past few weeks.
The main catalyst for the sell-off is the increasing possibility that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates soon as was widely expected. Earlier this year, the expectation was that the Fed would deliver three to four cuts this year starting from March.
Recently, however, there have been signs that the Fed may not cut rates after all. Data published on Friday revealed that the economy added over 300k jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%.
At the same time, US inflation remains stubbornly high. Data to be released on Wednesday will likely show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.4% in March as energy and services costs continued rising.
There are signs that the US inflation decline has faded this year as it has constantly remained above 3%. Therefore, analysts believe that the first rate cut will happen in July this year. Some economists expect that the Fed may not cut rates after all.
Still, Tron’s network has continued doing well this year. Data shows that the platform has a total value locked (TVL) of over $9.2 billion, helped by JustLend, JustStables, and stUSDT.
Tron’s network fees in the past 24 hours stood at over $.14 million in the past 24 hours as the volume rose to $12.3 million. Data by TokenTerminal shows that Tron’s fees this year stand at over $406 million, making it the second-best performer after Ethereum.
The key challenge for Tron is that its ecosystem growth has been slow. It is hard to see any new developers who have moved to the network. This is unlike Solana, which has become a major player in key areas like DEX and meme coins.
Tron price forecast
The TRX token price peaked at $0.14470 in March this year and has now retreated to $0.12. It has dropped by 18%, meaning that it is in a correction zone. Tron’s 100-day and 50-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) have formed a bearish crossover pattern.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has drifted upwards, moving from the oversold level of 18 to 47. It has also formed a bearish pennant pattern. Therefore, the outlook for the Tron price is extremely bearish, with the next point to watch being at $0.1100, its lowest point in March.
