- Bitcoin price has been in a consolidation phase in the past few days.
- The US dollar index has bounced back to over $104.
- The SEC will make its decision on the spot Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin price suffered a harsh reversal as demand for the coin eased and as the US dollar index (DXY) comeback gained steam. The BTC/USD pair moved back to $26,000, where it was consolidating at before the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust verdict. The DXY, on the other hand, has rebounded to $104.
SEC ETF news and NFP data
The price of Bitcoin will be impacted by two main things on Friday. First, the US will publish the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. Most investors believe that the labor market softened in August.
Precisely, analysts expect the data to show that the economy added over 170k jobs in August, the lowest increase in months. Data by ADP revealed that the private sector created 177k jobs. Another report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of job vacancies dropped to the lowest point in 2021.
These numbers will come a day after the US published strong Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) data. The report revealed that the country’s inflation remained steady in July.
Other reports published this week showed that the economic growth is a bit mild. Consumer confidence dropped to 106 in August while the economy expanded by just 2.1% in Q2. The first estimate showed that the economy grew by 2.4%.
Therefore, these numbers imply that the Fed will likely leave interest rates unchanged in September. The US dollar index (DXY) has jumped to $104 as the greenback emerges as the best currency to hold.
The other catalyst for Bitcoin price will be the upcoming statement by the SEC about spot ETFs by companies like Bitwise, Blackrock, and Invesco. As I wrote here, the SEC will have three choices: accept, reject, or delay.
The most likely scenario is where the SEC delays the decision as it reviews the Grayscale Trust verdict. This move will see Bitcoin remain in a tight range. A decision to accept these ETFs will see the coin rebound sharply.
Bitcoin price prediction
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair formed a double-top pattern at 31,045. In price action analysis, this is one of the most popular bearish signs. Most recently, the coin formed a bearish flag, which was invalidated after the Grayscale verdict.
The coin remains below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flattened. It has also dropped below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest levels since December.
Therefore, the coin will likely have a bearish breakout as sellers target the key support at $25,000. This view will be invalidated if the SEC verdict on ETFs is positive.
