THORChain’s native token RUNE has faced significant headwinds, dropping 30% in the past week amid broader market volatility. The protocol’s upcoming Base Chain integration through THORNode v3.1.1 arrives at a critical time for the network.
As the protocol prepares for its next technical advancement, investors and traders are closely monitoring key price levels and market indicators to gauge potential trend reversals. Let’s analyze the current market conditions and technical indicators to better understand RUNE’s price trajectory.
Base Chain Integration: A New Chapter After Recent Struggles
THORChain’s recent v3.1.1 upgrade, while designed to enhance the protocol’s infrastructure, has coincided with a period of price decline. The token has struggled to maintain its previous trading range, dropping 29.5% in the past week. This downward pressure has persisted despite the upgrade’s technical improvements to the network.
The protocol is now taking its next step forward with the Base Chain integration. THORNode v3.1.1 has successfully added Base to THORChain’s infrastructure, though swaps remain temporarily unavailable. The final piece of this integration puzzle is set for January 11th at 11:30 AM EST, when the router deployment will occur during the next network churn.
Afterwards, this router activation will unlock several new capabilities for THORChain users. The update will enable the creation of new ERC20 pools on Base and facilitate BASE.ETH swaps. Currently, the whitelist includes support for USDC and cbBTC tokens on the Base network. For new ERC20 pools to transition from staged to active status, a minimum of 10,000 RUNE is required.
The integration introduces a distinct churning mechanism, where pools and vaults operate on separate intervals. This design choice aims to enhance network stability and liquidity management. The Base Router has already been deployed and awaits registration during the next churn, after which it will begin processing deposits and outbound transactions. This expansion of THORChain’s cross-chain capabilities comes at a crucial time as the protocol seeks to rebuild momentum in the market.
Technical Analysis and Price Outlook
RUNE’s price action shows a clear downward trajectory since late December 2024, with the token declining from around $5.80 to its current level of $3.51. The steady descent has formed a bearish channel, with each attempted recovery meeting resistance at lower levels.
The Bollinger Bands reveal increasing volatility, with the price consistently trading near the lower band. This positioning typically suggests oversold conditions, though in strong downtrends, prices can continue to follow the lower band for extended periods.
The RSI currently reads 54.65, sitting in neutral territory and showing balanced momentum despite the recent price decline. This neutral RSI reading suggests that while the price trend remains bearish, selling pressure may be easing. However, the persistent downward momentum in price action suggests caution is still warranted.
Price support levels have formed around $3.28, coinciding with recent local lows. The token faces immediate resistance at $3.62, with stronger resistance zones established at $4.89 and $5.65. The 50-day moving average trending above current prices reinforces the bearish market structure.
RUNE/USD Trading Chart. TradingView
Trading volumes have remained consistent despite the price decline, indicating sustained market participation. However, the lack of significant buying pressure suggests traders are watching the Base Chain integration as a potential catalyst before making substantial moves.
For a sustained recovery, RUNE needs to first break above the immediate resistance at $3.62 and establish it as support. Until then, the technical structure remains bearish, with the upcoming Base Chain integration serving as a key fundamental event that could influence price direction.
