Aptos price has crawled back in the past few days but is showing signs of losing momentum ahead of a major token unlock. The APT token bottomed at $8.46 last week and has rebounded to $10.
Aptos price could slip ahead of a big unlock
Aptos, one of the top players seeking to challenge Ethereum, is bracing for a major event later this week as the network conducts its monthly unlocks. It will unlock another 11.32 million tokens, which will go to the community, core contributors, investors, and the foundation.
According to its tokenomics, Aptos has a total supply of 1.13 billion, with 558 million in circulation. 11.3 million tokens will be released on the 12th of every month until 2032, when all tokens will be released.
These unlocks are notable because they dilute existing investors, especially those who have staked the token. Some of these tokens usually move to the staking pools when the unlock occurs.
Aptos is one of the industry’s most staked tokens. It provides a staking yield of 7%, and the staking ratio has jumped to over 78.6% or $8.9 billion of the market cap. Its staking yield is much higher than that of other tokens like Ethereum and Solana.
In theory, a cryptocurrency should drop ahead of the token unlock. In reality, however, this does not always happen since market participants have already priced the unlock.
Meanwhile, Aptos has a thriving DeFi ecosystem with 44 dApps with a total value locked (TVL) of $1.1 billion. The biggest players in the ecosystem are Aries Markets, Echelon Market, Cellana Finance, and LiquidSwap.
Aptos has also attracted stablecoins worth $647 million, with Tether being the most dominant player.
Aptos price analysis
The daily chart shows that the APT token price has been pressured after peaking at $15.37 on December 7. It dropped to a low of $8.46 and then bounced back to $10.
On the negative side, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are about to form a bearish crossover. Also, the Aptos price has formed a rising, broadening wedge pattern comprising two ascending and diverging trendlines. All wedges are usually bearish signs.
Aptos is stuck at the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, the token will likely have a bearish breakdown in the next few days. If this happens, the next point to watch will be $8.46, the lowest swing on January 2. A break below that level will point to more downside, with the next level to watch at $7.
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