Prediction markets such as Polymarket have gained significant traction during the U.S. presidential campaigns, ultimately resulting in the election of former President Donald Trump on November 6.
Crypto traders and speculators bet on the election outcomes, with some backing Kamala Harris and others betting on Donald Trump’s victory. They aim to profit from the eventual winner, as the blockchain-based Polymarket registered an overall betting volume exceeding $3.68 billion in the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” category.
Following Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the November 5 elections, reports suggest France’s National Gaming Authority (Autorité Nationale des Jeux) might intend to block access to Polymarket from within the country.
The French news outlet The Big Whale reported that the ANJ compared the platform to a gambling website.
There are challenges to enforcing a ban on Polymarket
Citing a source close to the ANJ, The Big Whale reported that although Polymarket operates with cryptocurrencies, it is still considered a betting activity, which is illegal in France.
Similarly, the report cited William O’Rorke, a partner at ORWL Avocats, who expressed the same view. He mentioned that Polymarket is akin to a sports bet involving betting money on “something random.” Therefore, he argued that the ANJ could potentially block the platform even if it does not specifically aim at French bettors.
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The report indicates that regulatory attention arose after a French trader named Theo placed bets totaling $30 million on Donald Trump’s victory, ultimately gaining up to $19 million in profits when the former president won a second term.
According to the French news outlet, France’s National Gaming Authority (ANJ) is aware of the operation and is examining its compliance with French gambling laws.
However, the effectiveness of the banning may not match that of other traditional websites or platforms, as blockchain technology does not require KYC or any form of verification.
Although the ANJ (Autorité Nationale des Jeux) can impose technical restrictions, users can still access the platform using VPNs since Polymarket only requires a cryptocurrency wallet instead of confirming their identity.
However, if Polymarket is restricted in France, the only way to identify or track French users is through thorough on-chain analytics that can link a public crypto wallet to a specific user.
The prediction market played a key role in the U.S. election.
Polymarket facilitates predictions on various topics, including political elections. It allows users to measure public sentiment and possible outcomes for events like the just-concluded 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The prediction market accurately forecasted the election results on October 25, and these predictions matched the actual results on November 6.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024
Interestingly, Polymarket successfully identified specific outcomes that experts had misjudged during the election. A managing partner at Dragonfly, a crypto venture fund, mentioned that Polymarket consistently stayed ahead during the election.
In a relatively lengthy post on X, he noted that Polymarket’s decentralized nature allowed information to flow freely, enabling users to get real-time election process and outcome updates.
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