The odds that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot ADA ETF continued falling on Polymarket.
Cardano ETF odds are falling
A small poll with just $2,500 places the agency’s odds of accepting such an ETF at 18%, down from this month’s high of 35%.
Crypto analysts expect the agency to approve several ETFs after Paul Atkins, who will replace Gary Gensler, takes over. Atkins is seen as one of the most crypto-friendly SEC chairs ever.
Some companies have already applied for several spot ETFs in anticipation of the change of guard at the agency. For example, Canary Capital has applied for a series of ETFs of coins like Hedera Hashgraph and Litecoin. Other firms have applied for a Solana and XRP ETF.
Analysts at JPMorgan anticipate some crypto ETF approvals in 2025. It sees a Solana ETF having as much as $5.2 billion in inflows and an XRP fund having over $8.4 billion. Polymarket traders believe that SOL and XRP ETFs will be approved.
If this is the case, logic says that the SEC should also approve Cardano ETFs. For one, Cardano is one of the biggest cryptocurrencies in the world, with a market cap of $35 billion.
Cardano is also highly popular among crypto investors who see its potential to become a solid Solana and Ethereum disruptor.
It has a long way to catch up with these big names. For example, its transaction fees in the last 30 days dropped by 68% to $263k, while the stablecoin market cap fell by 4% to $23 million. In contrast, Ethereum and Solana have billions in stablecoins and make millions in fees each month.
Still, Cardano is working to grow its ecosystem. For example, the developers plan to integrate with BitcoinOS, a move that may unlock billions of liquidity to the Cardano ecosystem. They also plan to launch Midnight, a scaling project for Cardano’s network.
ADA price analysis
The weekly chart shows that the ADA price has more upside ahead. The 50-week and 25-week moving averages have formed a bullish crossover pattern pointing to more gains.
Cardano has also formed a break and retest pattern. In this, it crossed the important resistance level at $0.810, the neckline of the double-bottom pattern, and then retested it. Cardano has also formed a bullish pennant chart pattern.
Therefore, the Cardano price will likely have a bullish breakout and retest the key resistance at $1.6743, up by 70% from the current level and the 50% retracement point.
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