Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where anyone can bet on world events. While users can create events or bet on the events hosted on the platform, the odds of making a profit on the platform is very low.
The crypto betting and prediction platform has become increasingly popular in the last three months. The number of active wallets on the platform grew from 52,361 to 176,076 between July and September of 2024.
However, the number of wallets making any amount of profit is reported to be just 12%, meaning about 87% of wallet holders are losing money by predicting the outcome of world events.
Additionally, the number of wallets reporting profits over $1,000 is less than 1.5%. Out of 176,076 wallets connected to the platform, only 2,148 have reported profits above $1,000. Moreover, more than 80% of the wallets that have reportedly made a profit (13,859) have pocketed no more than $100.
What Makes Polymarket Popular?
Polymarket’s popularity can be attributed to several factors. For the crypto community, it is an independent and decentralized platform where they can bet on world events using cryptocurrency.
The recent surge in Polymarket’s popularity this year is due to the U.S. presidential elections. The odds of Donald Trump winning the election have attracted particular interest from the crypto community, as the former U.S. president has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate.
As the U.S. presidential election nears, the total trade volume on Polymarket continues to set new records. In July, the highest reported trade volume on a single day was about $18 million. By October 7, that number had exceeded $100 million in trade volume.
Additionally, open interest on Polymarket has been rising as election day approaches. Currently, there is over $160 million in open interest, the highest since Polymarket was launched.
While Trump’s endorsement of crypto is one of the factors boosting the popularity of platforms like Polymarket, Elon Musk further fueled the trend by tweeting that Polymarket’s odds were more accurate than conventional pre-election polls conducted by media outlets.
As election day draws near, new users continue to connect their wallets on Polymarket. The number of new wallets has been increasing consistently, with over 2,000 new wallets added daily in October.
